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2003, Number 1

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Med Crit 2003; 17 (1)

Prediction of mortality in cardiac surgery patients. A comparison of four predictive models

Sánchez VLD, Reyes SME, Carrillo RJA, Rincón SJJ, Medina VJC, Venegas AD

Language: Spanish
References: 24
Page: 19-23
PDF size: 55.84 Kb.


ABSTRACT

Objective: To establish a comparison of four severityadjusted models to predict mortality after cardiac surgery.
Design: Cohort study.
Setting: Cardiac surgery ICU of a general hospital, Mexico City.
Patients: Four hundred-seventeen patients (mean age 54.6 ± 13.7 yrs) admitted to the ICU after cardiac surgery during one year.
Interventions: None.
Measurements and main results: Demographic, status discharge, TU, Tuman, Parsonnet and APACHE II variables were evaluated. Discrimination with areas under ROC and calibration with χ2 Hosmer Lemeshow were made. Mortality rate was 12.5%. Areas ROC were: Tu 0.693 (CI95% 0.611-0.774), Tuman 0.790 (CI95% 0.715- 0.865), Parsonnet 0.991 (CI95% 0.979-1.000) and APACHE II 0.984 (CI95% 0.971-0.998). Calibration (χ2 H-L) of every model was: Tu 8.414 (p = 0.015), Tuman 5.827 (p = 0.054), Parsonnet 6.642 (p = 0.467) and APACHE II 8.227 (p = 0.313).
Conclusion: Parsonnet and APACHE II can be used as mortality predictors in cardiac surgery in Mexico.


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