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2003, Número 1

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Med Crit 2003; 17 (1)


Predicción de mortalidad en enfermos operados de corazón. Estudio comparativo de cuatro modelos predictivos

Sánchez VLD, Reyes SME, Carrillo RJA, Rincón SJJ, Medina VJC, Venegas AD

Idioma: Español
Referencias bibliográficas: 24
Paginas: 19-23
Archivo PDF: 55.84 Kb.


RESUMEN

Objetivo: Comparar cuatro modelos de severidad de la enfermedad para predecir la mortalidad en cirugía cardiaca.
Diseño: Estudio de cohorte.
Lugar: UCI de cirugía cardiaca de un hospital general de la Ciudad de México.
Pacientes: Cuatrocientos diecisiete pacientes (edad media 54.6 ± 13.7 años) admitidos a la UCI después de cirugía cardiaca.
Intervenciones: Ninguna.
Mediciones y resultados principales: Se evaluó demografía, estado vital al egreso y los modelos TU, Tuman, Parsonnet APACHE II. Se efectuó discriminación con áreas bajo la curva ROC y la calibración con χ2 de Hosmer Lemeshow. La mortalidad fue de 12.5%. Las áreas ROC fueron: Tu 0.693 (CI95% 0.611-0.774), Tuman 0.790 (CI95% 0.715-0.865), Parsonnet 0.991 (CI95% 0.979- 1.000) y APACHE II 0.984 (CI95% 0.971-0.998). La calibración (χ2 H-L) de cada modelo fue: Tu 8.414 (p = 0.015), Tuman 5.827 (p = 0.054), Parsonnet 6.642 (p = 0.467) y APACHE II 8.227 (p = 0.313).
Conclusión: Los modelos Parsonnet y APACHE II pueden utilizarse como predictores de mortalidad en cirugía cardiaca en México.


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