2012, Number 3
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Rev Cub Med Int Emerg 2012; 11 (3)
Acute heart failure. Validation of a prognostic scale
Mezquia PN, Fernández GEM, Vázquez CM, Olmo MJ
Language: Spanish
References: 16
Page: 2522-2529
PDF size: 92.24 Kb.
ABSTRACT
Introduction. The development of a questionnaire is a laborious process that can take
months to get a final version, however over time intensivists have considered the need
to assess the severity of illness designing scales to predict mortality.
Objectives. To evaluate the prognostic index between survived and deceased patients
and validate the scale in a different sample by assessing internal consistency and
convergent validity.
Methodological design. Prospective, cohort study in the Intermediate Care Unit of
Medicine of "Dr. Miguel Enriquez" Hospital from January the 1st to 31st July 2012. The
sample consisted of 70 patients. As evidence of discrimination the analysis of receiver
operator curve (ROC analysis) was used.
Results. The average score was significantly different between alived and deceased
patients (7,27 vs 4,56) correlation coefficient was 0,508, the probability of death given
by EP-ICA and the status at discharge were correlated (x
2 = 10,847 P = 0,0010). The
probability of non-survive of patients s who scored 5 or high was nine times higher
than the others. The area under the curve was 0,784 (95 % CI = 0669-0873).
Conclusions. The prognostic index shows a good discrimination, a different behavior
of prognostic index in alive and deceased patients is proved showing a positive
correlation coefficient and a high internal consistency and convergent validity.
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