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ISSN 0185-3252 (Print)
Revista de la Asociación Médica del Centro Médico ABC

2009, Number 1

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An Med Asoc Med Hosp ABC 2009; 54 (1)

Estimate of the trend of asthma in Mexico for the years 2008-2012

Roa CFM, Toral FS, Roa CVH, Zavala HJA, Duran ALM, Herrera ABP, Fuentes PF

Language: Spanish
References: 19
Page: 16-22
PDF size: 85.48 Kb.


ABSTRACT

Background: Prevalence of asthma and allergic diseases are a matter of concern in several countries, affecting almost a third of the population of children. International surveys emphasize the need for monitoring the epidemiological dynamics of these disturbances. The present study makes a projection of the asthma trends in our country for the 2008-2012 period. Method: This epidemiologic study reviews the Annual Morbility Database available in the Secretaria de Salud of Mexico, to compile the incidence of Bronchial Asthma in the 5-14 year old group in each Federal State of the Mexican Republic. Based on that, forecasts were performed for the years 2008-2012 by linear trend and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Results: The states of Colima, Tabasco, Chihuahua will be the ones which will register the highest incidence of Asthma by 2012 in the age group studied. The lower incidence by 2012 will be registered in the states of Puebla, Queretaro and Tlaxcala. Conclusion. The Secretaria de Salud and the Local Health Services will have to implement strategies to incide in the associated factors of this pathological entity, in the Federal States of Colima, Tabasco and Chihuahua, where the higher incidence directly affects the health and economy of the regions.


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