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Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública

2008, Número 3

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salud publica mex 2008; 50 (3)


Evaluación del clima y del ENSO en la reemergencia del dengue en la frontera Texas-México

Brunkard JM, Cifuentes E, Rothenberg SJ

Idioma: Ingles.
Referencias bibliográficas: 47
Paginas: 227-234
Archivo PDF: 272.18 Kb.


RESUMEN

Objetivo. Evaluar los vínculos entre el microclima, las variables relacionadas al fenómeno de El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENSO) y los cambios en el reporte semanal de casos de dengue en el área de Matamoros, Tamaulipas, México, a lo largo de una década de observaciones. Material y métodos. Se desarrolló un modelo autorregresivo para evaluar la influencia de factores climáticos (temperatura superficial del mar) y tiempo (temperatura máxima, temperatura mínima y precipitación) sobre la incidencia de dengue, a lo largo de 11 años (1995-2005), empleando análisis de series de tiempo. Resultados. La incidencia de casos de dengue aumentó 2.6% una semana después de cada 1°C de incremento en la temperatura máxima semanal (95% IC: 0.2, 5.1); observamos también que los casos de dengue aumentaron 1.9% dos semanas después de cada centímetro de incremento en la precipitación semanal (95% IC: -0.1, 3.9). Cada 1°C de aumento en la temperatura superficial del mar en la región Niño 3.4 fue seguida, 18 semanas después, de un aumento de 19.4% en la incidencia de casos de dengue (95% IC: -4.7, 43.5). Conclusiones. Los factores de clima y tiempo tienen una influencia menor, aunque significativa, sobre la transmisión del dengue en la ciudad fronteriza de Matamoros, México. Este estudio aporta información basal para identificar efectos potenciales de mayor alcance, relacionados con el cambio climático global sobre los casos esperados de dengue en las próximas décadas. Hasta donde sabemos, este es el primer estudio que evalúa las posibles asociaciones entre los eventos climáticos y tiempos y la incidencia de casos de dengue en la frontera de México con Texas.


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