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Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública

2021, Number 1

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salud publica mex 2021; 63 (1)

A risk score to predict admission to the intensive care unit in patients with Covid-19: the ABC-GOALS score

Mejía-Vilet JM, Córdova-Sánchez BM, Fernández-Camargo DA, Méndez-Pérez RA, Morales-Buenrostro LE, Hernández-Gilsoul T

Language: English
References: 38
Page: 1-12
PDF size: 343.90 Kb.


ABSTRACT

Objective. To develop a score to predict the need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in Covid-19. Materials and methods. We assessed patients admitted to a Covid-19 center in Mexico. Patients were segregated into a group that required ICU admission, and a group that never required ICU admission. By logistic regression, we derived predictive models including clinical, laboratory, and imaging findings. The ABC-GOALS was constructed and compared to other scores. Results. We included 329 and 240 patients in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Onehundred- fifteen patients from each cohort required ICU admission. The clinical (ABC-GOALSc), clinical+laboratory (ABC-GOALScl), clinical+laboratory+image (ABC-GOALSclx) models area under the curve were 0.79 (95%CI=0.74-0.83) and 0.77 (95%CI=0.71-0.83), 0.86 (95%CI=0.82-0.90) and 0.87 (95%CI=0.83-0.92), 0.88 (95%CI=0.84-0.92) and 0.86 (95%CI=0.81-0.90), in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The ABC-GOALScl and ABC-GOALSclx outperformed other Covid-19 and pneumonia predictive scores. Conclusion. ABC-GOALS is a tool to timely predict the need for admission to ICU in Covid-19.


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