Franco-Marina F, Villalba-Caloca J

Language: Spanish
References: 24
Page: 207-214
PDF size: 185.66 Kb.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: In recent decades an increasing frequency of lung cancer has been reported. The reasons for this increase have not been adequately elucidated. Objective: To describe the lung cancer epidemic in Mexico during the 20th Century and to predict its trends for the first decade of the current century. Material y methods: Data on mortality were gathered from routinely collected data and were analyzed through birth cohort techniques. Age and sex specific death rates were obtained through a Poisson regression model for cohorts born between 1900 and 1960. Age-adjusted death rates (for ages 35 through 84) were calculated as a function of birth cohort and year of death at the national and regional levels. Additionally, estimates of the number of lung cancer deaths predicted for the year 2010 are presented. Results: A rise in age adjusted death rates for the cohorts born during the first decades of the past century is observed, followed by a reduction in the death rates for the cohorts born more recently. The most developed regions of the country show a more pronounced decline in the risk of death. It is predicted that during the current decade lung cancer deaths will grow at lower annual rates than the rate of population growth in the more developed regions. Deaths from lung cancer in the less developed regions will grow annually at rates far above the rates of population growth. Conclusions: The reduction in the risk of death observed for the most recent birth cohorts seems to be due to a decrease in their intensity of smoking. There has been a diffusion of the epidemic from the more developed to the less developed regions of the country. In the near future, lung cancer cases will continue to rise in Mexico but this would not necessarily reflect a real increase in the incidence of the disease. For the more developed regions of the country the increasing frequency will be the result of population aging. On the other hand, for the less developed regions of Mexico the raising frequency will also be the result of an increase in incidence.

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