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2015, Number 2

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Revista Cubana de Cirugía 2015; 54 (2)

Predictive scale of mortality in the intestinal mechanical occlusion

Domínguez GEJ, Piña PLR, Cisneros DCM, Romero GLI

Language: Spanish
References: 21
Page: 129-139
PDF size: 191.32 Kb.


ABSTRACT

Introduction: the mechanical intestinal occlusion exhibits high frequency, and represents a daily problem for the surgeon. Up to the present, there is no predictive scale of mortality that allows detecting the highest risk of dying among these patients.
Objective: to design a predictive scale for patients operated on for this disease through the construction and validation of a predictive mortality model.
Methods: explanatory, analytical and cohort study, conducted in general surgery service of "Saturnino Lora Torres" hospital from January 2007 to December 2013. The sample was made up of 455 patients divided into two groups; the first one from which the model was designed and, the other that contributed the new cases to validate it. The predictive scale was designed on the basis of results.
Results: the logistic regression model estimated that being older than 60 years, the onset of symptoms after 48 hours, the transoperative physical condition risk IV and V, the presence of vascular problems, the exeresis procedures, shock and postoperative complications, were independently related to death, thus reaching highly significant indicators. It was possible with these variables to create the predictive scale, with a global sensitivity of 89.4, specificity of 98.5 , positive predictive value of 63.8 and negative predictive value of 99.7.
Conclusions: a model was constructed and validated, and a predictive scale of mortality was designed for the population affected with intestinal mechanical occlusion.


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