2014, Number 4
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Ann Hepatol 2014; 13 (4)
Epidemiology of HCC in Brazil: incidence and risk factors in a ten-year cohort
Paranaguá-Vezozzo DC, Ono SK, Alvarado-Mora MV, Farias AQ, Cunha-Silva M, França JID, Alves VAF, Sherman M, Carrilho FJ
Language: English
References: 23
Page: 386-393
PDF size: 118.18 Kb.
ABSTRACT
Background and aim. The lack of information about hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Brazil weakens health
policy in preventing deaths from the illness. The aim of this study was to establish the cumulative incidence
and the risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients under a surveillance program.
Material and methods. 884 patients with compensated cirrhosis were prospectively followed up for
at least five years, from August 1998 until August 2008, with at least one annual ultrasonography liver examination
and serum alpha fetoprotein (AFP) measurement.
Results. Among 884 patients, 72 (8.1%) developed
a tumor with a median follow up of 21.4 months. In the hepatocellular carcinoma group, hepatitis C
virus infection was the major etiological factor (65.3%), 56.9% (41/72) were male and the mean average age
was 57 ± 10 years. The annual incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was 2.9%. 79.2% (57/72) of HCCs were
detected within Milan Criteria, and the mean survival time was 52.3 months, significantly higher than for
those outside Milan, with a mean time of 40.6 months (p = 0.0003).
Conclusion. The annual incidence of
HCC among this large series of Brazilian cirrhotic patients was around 2.9% with a detection rate of 8.1%,
or a cumulative incidence rate over five years of 14.3%. The three variables related to HCC risk were low
serum albumin [HR: 0.518 (0.46-0.78)], high AFP › 20 ng/mL [HR: 3.16 (1.86-5.38)], and ethnicity (Brazilian-East
Asian descendants
vs. other mixed Brazilian ethnicities) [HR: 2.86 (1.48-5.53)].
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