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Órgano Oficial de la Asociación Mexicana de Hepatología

2008, Number 3

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Ann Hepatol 2008; 7 (3)

Model for end stage of liver disease (MELD) is better than the child-pugh score for predicting in-hospital mortality related to esophageal variceal bleeding

Flores-Rendón ÁR, González-González JA, García-Compean D, Maldonado-Garza HJ, Garza-Galindo AA

Language: Spanish
References: 22
Page: 230-234
PDF size: 186.29 Kb.


Text Extraction

Aim: The Child Pugh and MELD are good methods for predicting mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. We investigated their performance as risk factors for failure to control bleeding, in-hospital overall mortality and death related to esophageal variceal bleeding episodes. Methods: From a previous collected database, 212 cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding admitted to our hospital were studied. The predictive capability of Child Pugh and MELD scores were compared using c statistics. Results: The Child-Pugh and MELD scores showed marginal capability for predicting failure to control bleeding (the area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) values were ‹ 0.70 for both). The AUROC values for predicting in-hospital overall mortality of Child-Pugh and MELD score were similar: 0.809 (CI 95%, 0.710 - 0.907) and 0.88 (CI 95% 0.77- 0.99,) respectively. There was no significant difference between them (p › 0.05). The AUROC value of MELD for predicting mortality related to variceal bleeding was higher than the Child-Pugh score: 0.905 (CI 95% 0.801-1.00) vs 0.794 (CI 95% 0.676 – 0.913) respectively (p ‹ 0.05). Conclusions: MELD and Child-Pugh were not efficacious scores for predicting failure to control bleeding. The Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar capability for predicting in-hospital overall mortality. Nevertheless, MELD was significantly better than Child-Pugh score for predicting in-hospital mortality related to variceal bleeding.


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