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Órgano oficial de la Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa

2023, Number 3

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Rev Med UAS 2023; 13 (3)

Estimation of excess mortality from all causes in Sinaloa and its municipalities during 2020- 2021: first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic

Valenzuela-Zavala UM, Félix-Medina MH

Language: Spanish
References: 17
Page: 260-277
PDF size: 935.59 Kb.


ABSTRACT

Objective. Estimate the excess, accumulated excess, and percentage of accumulated excess mortality from all causes of Sinaloa and its municipalities in the years 2020 and 2021, both aggregated and disaggregated by sex and age groups. Materials and methods. The estimates were obtained by means of a linear regression model proposed by Karlinsky and Kobak and by a Poisson mixed model proposed by Acosta and Irizarry, and were calculated using the data reported by the INEGI on deaths that occurred from 2015 to 2021. Results. The all-cause excess mortalities in Sinaloa in 2020 and 2021 were about 7,000 y 13,600 deaths, and the respective percentages of accumulated excess mortality were about 50% y 43%. The municipalities that presented the lowest values of the percentage of excess were Choix and Salvador Alvarado, and those that presented the greatest values of the percentages were Angostura and Escuinapa. Both at the state level, and in most of the municipalities, the men presented the highest values of the accumulated excess; but women presented the greatest values of the percentages of accumulated excess. The group of 65 years and older presented, in general, the highest values of the accumulated excess, but the group of 45 to 64 years presented the greatest values of the percentages of accumulated excess. Conclusions. In Sinaloa, the impact of the epidemic on mortality was greater than that observed at the national level, and more serious than the impact suggested by the deaths confirmed by COVID-19.


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