2021, Number 6
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Revista Habanera de Ciencias Médicas 2021; 20 (6)
Scenario simulation to predict the behavior of COVID-19 in Peru
Sánchez VHE, Taramona RLA, Salgado RA, Huatuco LM, Castillo PF
Language: Spanish
References: 28
Page: 1-12
PDF size: 1770.62 Kb.
ABSTRACT
Introduction: COVID-19 has been a multi-dimensional
challenge for humanity, even more so for decisionmakers
responsible for acting in an accurate and timely
manner to confront it. In Peru, with is a current favorable
trend of the Pandemic, the spread of the Delta variant
is imminent, hence the need for predictive information
that makes it possible to make early decisions to mitigate
its effects.
Objective: To simulate scenarios applying the
physical-mathematical modeling to predict the behavior
of COVID-19 in Peru and facilitate decision-making.
Material and Methods: Physical-mathematical
modeling using MATLAB software tools and functions.
Results: Determination of the behavior of the main
variables associated with COVID-19 in Peru; physicalmathematical
modeling based on the classic SIR with new
compartments related to vaccination and those exposed, as
well as its adjustment to the data from Peru; simulation of
scenarios including the Delta variant for deceased persons,
cumulative number of infected individuals, and infection in
vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.
Conclusions: The model conceived for the simulation
of COVID-19 evolution scenarios demonstrated its ability
to predict the behavior of the most important variables
that determine such evolution in Peru; another wave of
infections may occur and cumulative figures between
2.9 and 3.36 million infected individuals and between
215 and 255 thousand deaths may be reached. The main
mitigation strategies should be aimed at guaranteeing
social distancing and isolation, as well as increasing the
vaccination regimen.
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