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Colegio de Medicina Interna de México.

2023, Number 1

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Med Int Mex 2023; 39 (1)

COVID-19: Delphi analysis for the evaluation of the transition from pandemic to endemic in Mexico

Macías-Hernández A, Ruiz-Palacios G, Wong-Chew RM, López-Macías C, Galindo-Fraga A, Cornejo-Juárez P, Ruiz-Matus C, Becerra-Aquino A, López-Cervantes M, González-Roldán JF, Espinosa-Rosales F, Villaseñor-Ruiz I, Mascareñas-De los Santos A, Alcántar-Ramírez J, Otero-Mendoza F, García-Méndez J

Language: Spanish
References: 39
Page: 46-65
PDF size: 294.47 Kb.


ABSTRACT

Objective: To review and analyze the available information about the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico and the determining factors for its transition to an endemic phase.
Material and Method: Prospective study based on the Delphi Method with the participation of a panel made up by specialists in infectious diseases, immunology, internal medicine, pulmonology, pediatrics and public health.
Results: 2270 bibliographic sources were identified; after excluding those that offered repetitive information, 454 were included in the final analysis. The main factors that obstruct the transition from a COVID-19 pandemic to an endemic one were defined as the high capacity of SARS-CoV-2 to mutate (since the efficacy of anti-COVID-19 vaccines depends to a large extent on the genetic presentations of the virus) and the high prevalence in the country of comorbidities that make the population more vulnerable against the disease. Strengthening primary care and promoting a culture of surveillance and prevention are essential.
Conclusiones: It was concluded, by consensus, that there are factors that obstruct the passage of the COVID-19 pandemic to an endemic phase, including the intrinsic nature of disease control and the unpredictability of virus mutations.


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