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Revista de Divulgación del INSTITUTO DE MEDICINA FORENSE de la UNIVERSIDAD VERACRUZANA

2021, Number 1

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Rev Mex Med Forense 2021; 6 (1)

COVID-19 mathematical projections: simulation of scenarios for the 2021 election in Mexico

Ortigoza-Capetillo GM, Lorandi-Medina AP

Language: Spanish
References: 17
Page: 44-57
PDF size: 680.02 Kb.


ABSTRACT

In this work we analyze hypothetical scenarios for COVID-19 infections during the 2021 election in Mexico; from april 2 to june 2, 2021, elections for federal deputies, local deputies, governorships and municipal presidencies will be held in what is considered the largest election in Mexico´s history; it is estimated that the activities of the electoral campaigns and the election day will increase the mobility of people and with it their risk of contagion by COVID-19. Using historical data on infection rates, the mean of these data is defined, its standard deviation and a t-Student distribution is used to obtain a 90% confidence interval for the mean. The center and both ends of this interval are used as rates of increase to simulate the growth of cases in two periods (first month; election of federal deputies; second month; election of governorships, local deputies and municipalities), simulations are reported using machine learning algorithms 2 monts after the elections.


REFERENCES

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